Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 311 | 010 | 11 | 427 |
| CBJ | 111 | 216 | 03 | 00 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30CBJIsac LundeströmAssists: Dante Fabbro, Miles Wood · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:58CBJMason MarchmentAssists: Charlie Coyle, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 11:37NYIAnders LeeAssists: Scott Mayfield, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 11:59NYIJean-Gabriel PageauUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 17:10NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 18:58CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 1:47NYISimon HolmstromGWGAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 11:59CBJMason Marchment: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 13:53CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Horvat – Barzal13:42
xG 1.10–0.76 (59%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom9:53
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb7:25
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Drouin – Heineman – Ritchie13:32
xG 0.44–0.77 (37%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Schaefer15:51
xG 0.87–0.56 (61%)attempts 22–15goals 0–1
- Pelech – Schaefer2:41
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pulock – DeAngelo2:14
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Monahan – Heinen12:07
xG 0.79–0.27 (75%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Wood – Lundeström – Voronkov6:48
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Marchment – Marchenko – Fantilli15:48
xG 0.57–0.67 (46%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger14:14
xG 0.66–1.09 (38%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski23:47
xG 1.37–0.79 (63%)attempts 36–20goals 2–1
- Fabbro – Mateychuk4:03
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Fabbro9:21
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).