Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 2, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 09 | 110 | 229 |
| MTL | 27 | 29 | 29 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30MTLCole CaufieldUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:16WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Declan Chisholm · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 14:19MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jayden Struble · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 12:22MTLMike MathesonGWGAssists: Zachary Bolduc, Alex Newhook · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 16:34MTLKirby DachAssists: Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 12:12WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome, Anthony Beauvillier · Snap, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 16:44MTLNick SuzukiENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.70 xG2–5
- P3 18:35MTLJake EvansENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:06WSHBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:24MTLMike Matheson: Holding2 min
- P2 10:09WSHRyan Leonard: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 17:17MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:00WSHNic Dowd: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:00MTLKirby Dach: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:51MTLNoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:33WSHConnor McMichael: Holding2 min
- P3 17:37MTLAlexandre Carrier: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Beauvillier5:33
xG 1.07–0.11 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas9:29
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- McMichael – Sourdif – Leonard4:19
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Frank5:02
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFehérváry – Sandin10:08
xG 1.18–0.11 (91%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chisholm10:54
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Roy – Chychrun9:50
xG 0.50–0.64 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Caufield9:28
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Evans – Newhook – Bolduc8:44
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov6:39
xG 0.54–0.62 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson10:45
xG 0.03–0.99 (3%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carrier – Struble9:17
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Dobson – Hutson10:33
xG 0.66–0.76 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 2–2
- Carrier – Guhle2:00
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).