Sat, Feb 28, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 211 | 04 | 011 | 01 | 227 |
| DAL | 06 | 18 | 110 | 11 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:26NSHMichael BuntingPPAssists: Matthew Wood, Luke Evangelista · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 15:35NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Luke Evangelista · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 16:18DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 5:31DALNathan BastianAssists: Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 1:47DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.33 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:07NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:09NSHZachary L'Heureux: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:09DALJustin Hryckowian: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:33DALThomas Harley: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:16NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min
- P2 5:02DALMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:09NSHRyan O'Reilly: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:01DALThomas Harley: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – McCarron – Smith2:34
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Forsberg – Bunting3:08
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Jost – L'Heureux – Wood4:44
xG 0.01–0.04 (22%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Marchessault – Forsberg5:59
xG 0.06–0.19 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPerbix – Wilsby4:24
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Josi – Blankenburg3:42
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Perbix2:13
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRobertson – Bourque – Johnston14:26
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Bastian – Bäck – Hyry5:49
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Steel11:37
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Erne – Hryckowian4:54
xG 0.07–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley9:59
xG 0.46–0.07 (86%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Bichsel9:44
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist3:42
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).