Mon, Mar 2, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 6, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 216 | 315 | 637 |
| VAN | 17 | 04 | 03 | 114 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57VANEvander KaneAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Marcus Pettersson · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 17:40DALAdam ErneAssists: Colin Blackwell · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:31DALLian BichselGWGAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 9:41DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen · Slap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 1:33DALMatt DucheneAssists: Sam Steel, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 5:40DALColin BlackwellUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG5–1
- P3 15:41DALLian BichselAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.08 xG6–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:31DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:48VANFilip Hronek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 12:06VANTom Willander: Holding2 min
- P3 12:45DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Duchene – Steel10:30
xG 1.32–0.17 (88%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Blackwell – Erne – Hryckowian8:31
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Bastian – Bäck – Hyry10:11
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Robertson – Bourque – Johnston14:38
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley18:49
xG 1.58–0.27 (85%)attempts 26–5goals 2–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen16:12
xG 1.36–0.17 (89%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Bichsel15:39
xG 0.82–0.32 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Kampf – Karlsson – Hoglander9:23
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrusk – Pettersson9:05
xG 0.24–0.49 (33%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Blueger – DeBrusk – Ohgren4:04
xG 0.06–0.58 (9%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Blueger – Garland – Ohgren7:40
xG 0.00–0.60 (1%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Joseph – Buium8:20
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Pettersson3:03
xG 0.00–0.51 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Hronek – Pettersson13:23
xG 0.14–0.70 (17%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).