Tue, Mar 3, 2026·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 015 | 013 | 135 |
| BOS | 212 | 011 | 05 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42PITErik KarlssonAssists: Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 5:10BOSMarat KhusnutdinovAssists: Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 6:00BOSCasey MittelstadtGWGAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:42BOSMichael Eyssimont: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 14:06PITConnor Clifton: Holding2 min
- P1 18:40BOSJonathan Aspirot: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:34PITEgor Chinakhov: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:55BOSViktor Arvidsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:25PITAnthony Mantha: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:15BOSCasey Mittelstadt: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Novak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Dewar – Hayes5:05
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov11:00
xG 0.70–0.50 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Rust – Rakell – Kindel10:14
xG 0.78–0.76 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Hayes – Mantha – Brazeau5:07
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Girard12:04
xG 0.80–0.52 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon11:50
xG 0.67–0.73 (48%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
- Clifton – Shea13:10
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie5:00
xG 0.31–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov7:53
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Eyssimont – Geekie – Minten4:20
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic6:10
xG 0.50–0.62 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Lohrei8:06
xG 0.99–0.53 (65%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Peeke14:30
xG 0.73–0.55 (57%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- McAvoy – Aspirot9:40
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).