Tue, Mar 3, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 6, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 211 | 411 | 013 | 635 |
| CGY | 19 | 05 | 07 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:44DALSam SteelAssists: Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:52CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Blake Coleman, Adam Klapka · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 11:54DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 2:26DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 6:02DALSam SteelAssists: Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 8:48DALNathan BastianAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Thomas Harley · Tip-in, 0.06 xG5–1
- P2 19:41DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.17 xG6–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:32CGYBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
- P1 4:56DALMavrik Bourque: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:25CGYNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:25DALLian Bichsel: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:51CGYJoel Hanley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:56DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 15:32CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:03CGYAdam Klapka: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:44CGYJoel Hanley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:58DALMavrik Bourque: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBastian – Bäck – Hyry7:59
xG 0.81–0.08 (91%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Erne – Hryckowian8:21
xG 0.70–0.07 (91%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Robertson – Bourque – Johnston10:59
xG 0.44–0.33 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Benn – Duchene – Steel6:28
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley12:29
xG 1.02–0.27 (79%)attempts 23–10goals 2–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen10:52
xG 0.81–0.30 (73%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Heiskanen – Harley2:10
xG 0.13–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Frost – Sharangovich – Gridin6:28
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Kadri – Lomberg – Klapka2:26
xG 0.05–0.17 (21%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Kadri – Farabee – Zary5:34
xG 0.01–0.26 (3%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
- Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka8:10
xG 0.21–0.53 (29%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBahl – Parekh2:53
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hanley – Kuznetsov2:46
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Weegar – Hanley2:00
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).