Tue, Mar 3, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Montréal Canadiens 5, San Jose Sharks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 110 | 318 | 536 |
| SJS | 18 | 39 | 311 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:18MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:32SJSCollin GrafAssists: Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:09MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Mike Matheson, Jake Evans · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 10:28SJSMichael MisaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 18:23SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Collin Graf · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 18:48SJSAlexander WennbergAssists: Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 3:29SJSWill SmithPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–5
- P3 5:02MTLIvan DemidovPPAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 5:20MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Jake Evans, Kaiden Guhle · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 10:56MTLAlex NewhookPPAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–5
- P3 16:34SJSKiefer SherwoodPPGWGAssists: Philipp Kurashev, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–6
- P3 19:56SJSAdam GaudetteENAssists: Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:42MTLNick Suzuki: Interference2 min
- P2 2:13SJSCollin Graf: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:55SJSMacklin Celebrini: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:33MTLOliver Kapanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:32SJSAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:43MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:43SJSMario Ferraro: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:43MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:54SJSVincent Desharnais: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:58SJSSam Dickinson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:41SJSAdam Gaudette: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:41MTLKirby Dach: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:03MTLZachary Bolduc: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Danault – Anderson6:52
xG 0.66–0.14 (83%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Evans – Newhook – Bolduc9:28
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov6:42
xG 0.37–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield10:17
xG 0.08–0.60 (12%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Hutson14:04
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Matheson – Guhle15:09
xG 0.81–0.67 (55%)attempts 15–15goals 3–3
- Carrier – Struble7:39
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Celebrini – Graf10:09
xG 0.79–0.31 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 2–3
- Wennberg – Sherwood – Kurashev8:25
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk6:32
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Misa7:20
xG 0.20–0.75 (21%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Klingberg12:14
xG 0.61–0.51 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 2–3
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin10:59
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Dickinson10:25
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).