Wed, Mar 4, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 08 | 28 | 12 | 425 |
| DET | 311 | 07 | 07 | 01 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50VGKReilly SmithAssists: Mitch Marner, Pavel Dorofeyev · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 5:58DETEmmitt FinnieAssists: Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 15:15DETSimon EdvinssonAssists: Andrew Copp, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 16:14DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Lucas Raymond, Axel Sandin-Pellikka · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 11:37VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 16:36VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Tomas Hertl, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 2:11VGKTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:47VGKKeegan Kolesar: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:51DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:14VGKTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:31VGKShea Theodore: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:37VGKTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:52DETSimon Edvinsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Bowman14:15
xG 1.36–0.37 (78%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
- Smith – Marner – Dorofeyev6:33
xG 0.45–0.10 (81%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Smith8:22
xG 0.22–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev2:58
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Lauzon10:07
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson5:58
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:55
xG 0.81–0.46 (64%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Appleton – Kasper – Finnie9:31
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Shine6:33
xG 0.02–0.27 (8%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Copp – DeBrincat – Raymond12:12
xG 0.37–0.65 (37%)attempts 7–14goals 2–1
- Kane – Larkin – Rasmussen13:41
xG 0.52–1.07 (33%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chiarot – Johansson3:47
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka6:57
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Bernard-Docker15:12
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).