Thu, Mar 5, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 07 | 213 | 228 |
| CBJ | 19 | 110 | 29 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08CBJIvan ProvorovPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 10:50CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Egor Zamula, Ivan Provorov · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 1:41CBJBoone JennerGWGAssists: Kent Johnson · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 9:08FLANiko MikkolaAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Sam Reinhart · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 14:44FLASam BennettPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 18:18CBJMathieu OlivierENAssists: Charlie Coyle, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.81 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:44FLAMackie Samoskevich: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:53CBJDamon Severson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:32FLAEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:10CBJJake Christiansen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:44FLADonovan Sebrango: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:44FLAUvis Balinskis: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:44CBJErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:02CBJKirill Marchenko: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Tkachuk – Samoskevich9:45
xG 0.69–0.57 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Nosek – Boqvist – Vilmanis7:45
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Rodrigues – Lundell12:43
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Luostarinen8:30
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling13:03
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola15:54
xG 0.84–0.67 (56%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Sebrango – Balinskis12:23
xG 0.55–0.85 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Monahan – Johnson7:06
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Wood – Lundeström – Voronkov4:09
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Marchment – Marchenko – Fantilli6:47
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Wood – Voronkov – Fantilli2:20
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Christiansen9:42
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Provorov5:25
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Severson2:05
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).