Fri, Mar 6, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 28 | 118 | 36 | 632 |
| EDM | 13 | 19 | 14 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:43EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:20CARShayne GostisbehereAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 12:06CARNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 1:37CARJordan MartinookAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, K'Andre Miller · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 3:20EDMVasily PodkolzinUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 7:32CARJackson BlakeGWGAssists: K'Andre Miller, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 11:43EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 18:39CARJordan StaalENAssists: K'Andre Miller, Frederik Andersen · Backhand, 0.82 xG5–3
- P3 19:31CARJackson BlakeAssists: Logan Stankoven, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.08 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:54EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:46CARTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:21EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min
- P3 8:50EDMMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:40CARK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Ehlers9:14
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson8:27
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake10:17
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis13:10
xG 0.34–0.67 (34%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Nikishin3:37
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Chatfield – Nikishin3:14
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin2:41
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid5:08
xG 0.53–0.08 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Frederic – Dach4:24
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid10:26
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Dickinson – Kapanen – Podkolzin9:20
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:52
xG 1.28–0.35 (79%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
- Murphy – Nurse2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Walman – Emberson2:15
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).