Sat, Mar 7, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Nashville Predators 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 112 | 17 | 225 |
| BUF | 02 | 213 | 19 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:17NSHZachary L'HeureuxAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 12:39BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch · Slap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 14:17BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Jack Quinn, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 0:16BUFJosh DoanGWGAssists: Josh Norris, Noah Ostlund · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 16:08NSHMatthew WoodPPAssists: Roman Josi, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:12NSHTyson Jost: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:12BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:43NSHSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:13BUFRyan McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:09BUFMattias Samuelsson: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:27NSHTyson Jost: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:55BUFJack Quinn: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – L'Heureux – Kemell9:44
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista2:03
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Evangelista – Wood7:42
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Marchessault8:05
xG 0.06–0.43 (12%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Perbix6:53
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Skjei – Barron3:22
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Ufko4:36
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Quinn10:35
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Norris – Doan – Ostlund12:25
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Carrick – Malenstyn – Benson5:13
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs10:20
xG 0.59–0.47 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin11:04
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Byram – Power9:13
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Byram2:05
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).