Sat, Mar 7, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Ottawa Senators 7, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 213 | 213 | 311 | 737 |
| SEA | 15 | 16 | 210 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:45SEAJacob MelansonAssists: Ben Meyers, Ryan Winterton · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 9:19OTTTyler KlevenAssists: Shane Pinto, Michael Amadio · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 13:35OTTDylan CozensAssists: Thomas Chabot, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 1:34OTTShane PintoAssists: Artem Zub, Nick Cousins · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 10:09OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Shane Pinto, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P2 15:00SEAEeli TolvanenUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 2:42OTTWarren FoegeleGWGAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–2
- P3 3:58OTTTim StützleAssists: Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–2
- P3 7:24OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.10 xG7–2
- P3 10:16SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Cale Fleury, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.05 xG7–3
- P3 17:45SEABrandon MontourPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.13 xG7–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:51OTTShane Pinto: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:55SEAJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:33SEAEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:50OTTShane Pinto: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 16:35OTTTyler Kleven: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:35SEAJared McCann: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:35OTTTyler Kleven: Cross checking5 min
- P3 16:35OTTTyler Kleven: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:58OTTLars Eller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Amadio – Pinto10:57
xG 0.71–0.22 (77%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig10:25
xG 0.79–0.35 (69%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle9:27
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund8:18
xG 0.57–0.34 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub9:51
xG 0.74–0.04 (95%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Jensen – Kleven3:47
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Spence – Kleven9:23
xG 0.69–0.42 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Kakko – Wright – Catton8:06
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Tolvanen – Winterton2:02
xG 0.02–0.09 (15%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Tolvanen4:54
xG 0.01–0.11 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Winterton – Melanson – Meyers6:20
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Evans11:26
xG 0.89–0.48 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 3–3
- Larsson – Dunn9:43
xG 0.05–0.83 (5%)attempts 3–13goals 0–3
- Oleksiak – Montour18:54
xG 0.07–1.27 (5%)attempts 8–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).