Sun, Mar 8, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Minnesota Wild 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 015 | 29 | 01 | 1 | 234 |
| COL | 014 | 112 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:19COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 4:17MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 7:01MINNico SturmSHAssists: Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 12:39COLNicolas RoyAssists: Brett Kulak, Joel Kiviranta · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. COL Valeri Nichushkin scored
- 3. MIN Matt Boldy scored
- 4. COL Martin Necas stopped
- 5. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 6. COL Nazem Kadri stopped
- 7. MIN Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 8. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:20MINQuinn Hughes: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:57MINZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:43MINRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:28COLNicolas Roy: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:13COLRoss Colton: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:17MINYakov Trenin: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:29MINKirill Kaprizov: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:58COLValeri Nichushkin: Slashing2 min
- OT 3:57COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Brink – Boldy6:19
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – McCarron – Sturm3:25
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Yurov7:52
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy2:15
xG 0.01–0.25 (3%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin9:32
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Middleton9:07
xG 0.46–0.53 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Hughes – Faber16:08
xG 0.84–1.01 (45%)attempts 19–17goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – MacKinnon – Necas11:10
xG 0.88–0.52 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Drury – Kiviranta – Bardakov2:45
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Kelly – Brindley4:36
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Roy – Kelly – Drury2:10
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:11
xG 0.99–0.53 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Manson – Kulak2:59
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Kulak – Malinski10:02
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).