Sun, Mar 8, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 19 | 28 | 111 | 00 | 428 |
| PIT | 09 | 116 | 314 | 11 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:27BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: Morgan Geekie, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 8:47BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Jonathan Aspirot · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 12:23BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 14:44PITEgor ChinakhovPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 6:02PITConnor DewarAssists: Ryan Shea · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 6:35PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Tommy Novak, Ilya Solovyov · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 8:34BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Jonathan Aspirot · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 11:18PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Parker Wotherspoon, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 0:17PITTommy NovakGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:38PITEgor Chinakhov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:10BOSMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:10PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:44BOSJonathan Aspirot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:06BOSHampus Lindholm: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:56PITIlya Solovyov: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:28PITParker Wotherspoon: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Rakell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Mittelstadt – Minten2:09
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt9:27
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic8:08
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
- Eyssimont – Geekie – Minten8:47
xG 0.22–0.61 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:35
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Lohrei15:47
xG 0.75–1.00 (43%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- McAvoy – Aspirot11:42
xG 0.23–0.57 (29%)attempts 6–19goals 1–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Dewar – Lizotte10:07
xG 1.29–0.15 (90%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Rust – Rakell – Chinakhov12:21
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Soderblom – Hayes – Kindel8:48
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 17–6goals 0–2
- Mantha – Novak – Koivunen11:25
xG 0.24–0.42 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon17:15
xG 1.09–0.38 (74%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Girard – Solovyov12:22
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Letang – Shea14:55
xG 0.47–0.67 (41%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).