Tue, Mar 10, 2026·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 3, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 212 | 15 | 328 |
| FLA | 16 | 09 | 313 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:48FLAVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Gustav Forsling · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 3:54DETPatrick KaneAssists: Moritz Seider, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 12:59DETJustin FaulkAssists: Andrew Copp · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 5:10FLANiko MikkolaAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 6:32DETMarco KasperAssists: Emmitt Finnie, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:30FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 19:45FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:30FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:09DETAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:07FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:45DETSimon Edvinsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:18DETAlex DeBrincat: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat7:48
xG 0.76–0.10 (89%)attempts 10–5goals 2–1
- Raymond – Kasper – Finnie10:47
xG 0.87–0.35 (71%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat5:46
xG 0.20–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Compher – Appleton – Brandsegg-Nygård5:12
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson19:00
xG 1.45–0.49 (75%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson11:29
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Faulk15:13
xG 0.58–0.70 (45%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Greer – Samoskevich12:02
xG 0.77–0.20 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Kunin – Boqvist8:36
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk9:18
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell11:28
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Sebrango15:45
xG 0.55–0.30 (64%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling14:20
xG 0.19–0.77 (20%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Mikkola – Balinskis11:27
xG 0.60–1.20 (33%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).