Tue, Mar 10, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 04 | 114 | 09 | 127 |
| DAL | 03 | 29 | 04 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:31VGKJack EichelAssists: Shea Theodore, Ivan Barbashev · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 10:41DALOskar BäckAssists: Colin Blackwell, Thomas Harley · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 14:16DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene · Bat, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:36VGKBraeden Bowman: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:59VGKRasmus Andersson: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:04DALLian Bichsel: Interference2 min
- P2 13:20VGKNic Dowd: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:39DALThomas Harley: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:16VGKIvan Barbashev: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:27DALJustin Hryckowian: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:14VGKJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hyry won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Marner – Dorofeyev3:19
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Hertl – Sissons5:20
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Dowd – Kolesar – Smith5:52
xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Sissons – Howden2:30
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore13:07
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Korczak10:26
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:31
xG 0.11–0.79 (12%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Bäck – Hyry7:25
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Erne – Bunting – Hryckowian8:13
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Robertson – Bourque – Johnston10:35
xG 0.52–0.57 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Benn – Duchene – Steel6:45
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Bichsel9:20
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Lundkvist – Harley12:23
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Lindell – Harley3:09
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).