Wed, Mar 11, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 19 | 15 | 323 |
| OTT | 211 | 010 | 013 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Ivan Demidov, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 16:42OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Deflected, 0.85 xG1–1
- P1 18:41OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tim Stützle, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 17:29MTLAlexandre TexierAssists: Lane Hutson, Jake Evans · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 12:40MTLIvan DemidovGWGAssists: Alex Newhook, Kaiden Guhle · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:30OTTDylan Cozens: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 6:19MTLLane Hutson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:09MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:02MTLLane Hutson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:40OTTShane Pinto: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:59OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min
- P3 4:59MTLIvan Demidov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEvans – Dach – Bolduc9:26
xG 0.72–0.22 (76%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov9:18
xG 0.61–0.43 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson7:11
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Texier – Slafkovský12:55
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson13:39
xG 1.12–0.49 (70%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Matheson – Dobson14:11
xG 0.61–0.58 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Dobson – Hutson3:28
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Batherson – Stützle9:40
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig8:44
xG 0.36–0.45 (45%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto8:51
xG 0.30–0.52 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 0–2
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund6:46
xG 0.18–0.50 (26%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven14:14
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Chabot – Spence3:06
xG 0.02–0.09 (21%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kleven – Zub2:11
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).