Thu, Mar 12, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
St. Louis Blues 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 02 | 18 | 27 | 317 |
| CAR | 113 | 08 | 011 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:38CARMark JankowskiUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 3:53STLJimmy SnuggerudAssists: Dylan Holloway, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 15:12STLJimmy SnuggerudGWGAssists: Dylan Holloway, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 19:09STLPavel BuchnevichENAssists: Jack Finley, Alexey Toropchenko · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 9:13STLJack Finley: Holding2 min
- P2 16:35STLTheo Lindstein: Holding2 min
- P3 2:39CARMike Reilly: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Finley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Kyrou – Neighbours – Dvorsky10:17
xG 0.39–0.35 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Thomas – Holloway – Snuggerud13:59
xG 0.64–0.80 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Buchnevich – Suter – Stenberg10:57
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Walker – Toropchenko – Finley8:24
xG 0.20–0.90 (18%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tucker – Broberg2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Fowler – Tucker12:38
xG 0.60–0.71 (46%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Fowler – Parayko2:52
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Carrier – Robinson7:48
xG 0.86–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis14:07
xG 0.80–0.11 (88%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake11:38
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers9:00
xG 0.35–0.79 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller17:25
xG 0.86–0.27 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Reilly – Nikishin11:34
xG 0.97–0.50 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Slavin – Chatfield15:59
xG 0.25–0.72 (26%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).