Thu, Mar 12, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 08 | 15 | 04 | 1 | 327 |
| MIN | 02 | 211 | 09 | 01 | 0 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:35PHIEmil AndraeAssists: Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 8:39MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 17:50MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Brock Faber, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 7:58PHIOwen TippettSHAssists: Carl Grundstrom, Travis Sanheim · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. PHI Matvei Michkov stopped
- 3. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 4. PHI Trevor Zegras stopped
- 5. MIN Matt Boldy stopped
- 6. PHI Travis Konecny scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:00PHIMatvei Michkov: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:52MINMarcus Johansson: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:14PHINick Seeler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:54MINRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:08PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
- P3 19:08MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 1:35MINQuinn Hughes: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGrundstrom – Tippett – Zegras8:41
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Couturier – Hathaway – Grebenkin6:12
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cates – Barkey – Michkov7:42
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Grebenkin2:04
xG 0.00–0.03 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seeler – Andrae11:48
xG 0.45–0.46 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- York – Drysdale16:31
xG 0.45–0.63 (42%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:44
xG 0.33–0.84 (28%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov11:27
xG 0.52–0.24 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:30
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kaprizov – Yurov2:48
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – McCarron – Trenin5:53
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Faber19:21
xG 1.02–0.18 (85%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin15:10
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Middleton10:21
xG 0.34–0.50 (40%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).