Thu, Mar 12, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 6, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 13 | 16 | 48 | 617 |
| WPG | 06 | 211 | 19 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08NYRAdam FoxPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 2:21WPGIsak RosenAssists: Jacob Bryson, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 7:36NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Will Borgen, Gabe Perreault · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 17:49WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Elias Salomonsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 1:15NYRTye KartyeAssists: Matthew Robertson, Braden Schneider · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 4:19WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Adam Lowry, Cole Perfetti · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 6:57NYRGabe PerreaultGWGAssists: Braden Schneider, Alexis Lafrenière · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 11:08NYRAdam EdstromAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 19:09NYRNoah LabaENAssists: Tye Kartye, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.82 xG6–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 0:59WPGGabriel Vilardi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:18NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Interference2 min
- P2 10:31WPGElias Salomonsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Brodzinski – Parssinen – Chmelar7:44
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Sheary – Kartye – Laba10:52
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault14:00
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Trocheck – Edstrom – Cuylle11:48
xG 0.37–0.78 (33%)attempts 12–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Gavrikov – Fox16:47
xG 0.61–0.71 (46%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Borgen – Vaakanainen14:46
xG 0.34–0.56 (37%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Robertson – Schneider18:57
xG 0.38–0.76 (33%)attempts 16–20goals 2–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Iafallo15:07
xG 0.87–0.51 (63%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Toews – Nyquist – Rosen7:54
xG 0.43–0.20 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Lowry – Vilardi – Perfetti9:55
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 1–2
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi2:33
xG 0.09–0.00 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Salomonsson17:09
xG 0.92–0.58 (61%)attempts 22–19goals 2–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey18:37
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Fleury – Bryson11:30
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).