Sat, Mar 14, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 08 | 07 | 00 | 1 | 228 |
| PHI | 16 | 05 | 07 | 01 | 0 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:21CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Adam Fantilli, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:24PHIAlex BumpAssists: Emil Andrae, Christian Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.68 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PHI Matvei Michkov stopped
- 2. CBJ Kent Johnson stopped
- 3. PHI Trevor Zegras stopped
- 4. CBJ Adam Fantilli stopped
- 5. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 6. CBJ Kirill Marchenko scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:13CBJKirill Marchenko: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:18CBJAdam Fantilli: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:18PHICarl Grundstrom: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:18CBJAdam Fantilli: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:18PHICarl Grundstrom: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:38CBJCole Sillinger: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:35CBJDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:35CBJDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:29PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchment – Marchenko – Fantilli6:20
xG 0.80–0.18 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Monahan – Garland – Johnson8:30
xG 0.63–0.06 (91%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Jenner – Heinen – Lundeström6:49
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger3:38
xG 0.02–0.04 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Mateychuk12:31
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski7:07
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov2:58
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Konecny – Bump9:42
xG 0.88–0.73 (54%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Tippett – Zegras – Grebenkin6:47
xG 0.14–0.38 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cates – Barkey – Michkov7:32
xG 0.06–0.30 (18%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Couturier – Glendening – Grundstrom7:37
xG 0.00–0.59 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Andrae7:54
xG 0.71–0.18 (80%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- York – Drysdale14:28
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Andrae – Drysdale3:00
xG 0.01–0.27 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).