Sat, Mar 14, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 04 | 04 | 214 | 02 | 224 |
| DAL | 19 | 18 | 06 | 11 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Nils Lundkvist · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:19DALMichael BuntingPPAssists: Justin Hryckowian, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P3 6:51DETSimon EdvinssonAssists: Moritz Seider, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 16:34DETLucas RaymondAssists: Emmitt Finnie, Alex DeBrincat · Bat, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 2:06DALThomas HarleyGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:34DETDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:34DALMiro Heiskanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:33DETDominik Shine: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:25DETMoritz Seider: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:30DALNathan Bastian: Interference2 min
- P2 10:48DETJ.T. Compher: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:31DETLucas Raymond: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:33DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
- P3 3:35DETJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P3 3:35DALJason Robertson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:44DALTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Blackwell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Compher – DeBrincat11:42
xG 0.69–0.10 (88%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Perron – Raymond – Kasper4:13
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Leonard – Finnie3:33
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Leonard – Kasper2:13
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson15:00
xG 0.93–0.60 (61%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Faulk15:15
xG 0.41–0.34 (54%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson8:25
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRobertson – Bourque – Johnston11:11
xG 0.72–0.64 (53%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Benn – Duchene – Steel6:57
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Bunting – Hryckowian7:45
xG 0.01–0.47 (2%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Bastian – Bäck – Hyry6:06
xG 0.01–0.52 (2%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley3:13
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Myers – Bichsel12:28
xG 0.11–0.54 (17%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen11:05
xG 0.25–0.71 (26%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).