Sun, Mar 15, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Anaheim Ducks 4, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 29 | 110 | 428 |
| MTL | 09 | 312 | 09 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Chris Kreider, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 0:27ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Troy Terry · Slap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 1:33MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 2:33MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Noah Dobson, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 13:06MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 15:39ANATroy TerryAssists: Chris Kreider, Leo Carlsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 17:30ANACutter GauthierGWGAssists: Jeffrey Viel, Ryan Poehling · Snap, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:00ANAAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:49ANAOlen Zellweger: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:44ANAIan Moore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:31MTLPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
- P3 4:34ANABeckett Sennecke: Embellishment2 min
- P3 4:34MTLJosh Anderson: Holding2 min
- P3 9:51ANAMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Terry – Carlsson9:38
xG 0.98–0.29 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 3–0
- Viel – Poehling – Gauthier9:10
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Killorn – Granlund – Sennecke10:51
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Vatrano – Harkins – Washe5:28
xG 0.01–0.17 (5%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Zellweger13:00
xG 1.02–0.31 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Carlson – Mintyukov2:25
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Trouba – LaCombe15:00
xG 0.83–0.50 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 2–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Anderson – Evans2:06
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson8:05
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov9:20
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Evans – Texier – Demidov2:27
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Carrier2:47
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Dobson – Hutson2:51
xG 0.24–0.52 (31%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
- Carrier – Xhekaj7:48
xG 0.10–0.62 (14%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).