Sun, Mar 15, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 1, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 08 | 112 | 127 |
| EDM | 111 | 110 | 19 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:32EDMMatt SavoieGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 4:52NSHFedor SvechkovAssists: Nicolas Hague, Justin Barron · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 18:53EDMZach HymanENAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:51NSHNick Perbix: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:06EDMKasperi Kapanen: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:06NSHNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:06EDMVasily Podkolzin: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:06EDMTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:39EDMConnor Murphy: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:04EDMJosh Samanski: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:21NSHErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:28NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:39NSHSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Jost – L'Heureux3:58
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Wiesblatt – Svechkov – Schaefer3:55
xG 0.20–0.18 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Marchessault – Forsberg – Wood6:52
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jost – L'Heureux – Svechkov2:01
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Barron2:30
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Josi – Ufko2:43
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hague – Perbix7:45
xG 0.24–0.25 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Savoie9:45
xG 0.80–0.10 (89%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Dickinson – Roslovic8:33
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Frederic – Samanski4:32
xG 0.04–0.13 (21%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Podkolzin – Samanski4:16
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Nurse13:40
xG 0.77–0.35 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:33
xG 0.85–0.44 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Walman – Stastney10:51
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).