Mon, Mar 16, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 47 | 28 | 15 | 720 |
| COL | 217 | 04 | 06 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Bryan Rust, Noel Acciari · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 4:08COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Martin Necas, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 4:23PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 13:00PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P1 13:43PITElmer SoderblomAssists: Connor Dewar, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.23 xG4–1
- P1 14:21COLBrent BurnsAssists: Gavin Brindley, Josh Manson · Snap, 0.01 xG4–2
- P2 10:36PITErik KarlssonAssists: Ryan Shea · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–2
- P2 16:20PITBryan RustPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–2
- P3 9:06PITNoel AcciariAssists: Elmer Soderblom, Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.17 xG7–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:48PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:33PITVille Koivunen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:39COLJack Drury: Interference2 min
- P2 3:30PITAnthony Mantha: Holding2 min
- P2 11:11PITArturs Silovs: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:30COLNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:40COLGavin Brindley: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 10:59PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:59COLParker Kelly: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:59PITConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:59COLJack Drury: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Rakell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Dewar – Soderblom8:34
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 3–0
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov9:31
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Rust – Rakell – Mantha9:15
xG 0.32–0.51 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Brazeau – Koivunen – Kindel6:12
xG 0.08–0.38 (17%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Solovyov8:10
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Clifton – Shea2:09
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Letang – Solovyov3:49
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Nelson – Roy7:10
xG 1.20–0.14 (90%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta5:44
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Necas14:10
xG 0.72–0.87 (45%)attempts 19–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson5:33
xG 0.90–0.11 (89%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar10:34
xG 0.94–0.48 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 1–2
- Kulak – Malinski10:00
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).