Tue, Mar 17, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 06 | 113 | 010 | 129 |
| CBJ | 211 | 211 | 18 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25CBJMason MarchmentPPAssists: Charlie Coyle, Adam Fantilli · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 19:05CBJCharlie CoylePPGWGAssists: Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 14:05CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Alexander Nikishin · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 17:29CBJDanton HeinenAssists: Charlie Coyle, Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 18:03CBJDenton MateychukAssists: Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 7:38CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Charlie Coyle, Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:23CARSeth Jarvis: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 17:45CARJackson Blake: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:38CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:38CARNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:48CARSebastian Aho: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:48CBJDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:02CARSeth Jarvis: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 12:50CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Jankowski – Carrier9:46
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Svechnikov – Stankoven – Blake2:45
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Ehlers – Jarvis3:13
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers6:29
xG 0.06–0.19 (23%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Nikishin13:53
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Slavin – Chatfield12:37
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
- Walker – Miller15:42
xG 0.15–1.13 (12%)attempts 15–23goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Olivier – Sillinger8:51
xG 0.72–0.11 (86%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Monahan – Garland – Johnson9:39
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Jenner – Heinen – Lundeström10:30
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Marchment – Marchenko – Fantilli10:31
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski13:47
xG 0.90–0.30 (75%)attempts 19–20goals 2–0
- Provorov – Mateychuk12:53
xG 0.66–0.25 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Severson – Provorov2:17
xG 0.02–0.02 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).