Tue, Mar 17, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 18 | 16 | 02 | 1 | 423 |
| WPG | 114 | 112 | 19 | 04 | 0 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:02NSHErik HaulaPPAssists: Roman Josi, Luke Evangelista · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 19:20WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 5:09WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Cole Perfetti, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 10:48NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Ryan Ufko · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 14:01NSHMatthew WoodAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:59WPGJonathan ToewsAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WPG Gabriel Vilardi stopped
- 2. NSH Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 3. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 4. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 5. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:14WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:15NSHRyan Ufko: Holding2 min
- P2 4:59NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:47NSHJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:54NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – L'Heureux – Schaefer5:56
xG 0.10–0.04 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista10:42
xG 0.38–0.42 (48%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Haula – Jost – L'Heureux2:01
xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jost – Wiesblatt – Svechkov7:00
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Perbix6:05
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Josi – Ufko2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Perbix – Ufko7:49
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi4:44
xG 0.38–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Barron – Koepke – Lambert6:08
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo9:47
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Lowry – Vilardi – Perfetti8:20
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Salomonsson16:36
xG 0.82–0.26 (76%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg3:27
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Fleury – Bryson6:18
xG 0.04–0.17 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).