Wed, Mar 18, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Dallas Stars 2, Colorado Avalanche 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 02 | 17 | 05 | 04 | 1 | 218 |
| COL | 16 | 015 | 010 | 03 | 0 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:33COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 6:18DALJason RobertsonAssists: Nathan Bastian, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson stopped
- 2. COL Valeri Nichushkin stopped
- 3. DAL Matt Duchene stopped
- 4. COL Martin Necas stopped
- 5. DAL Wyatt Johnston scored
- 6. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:06COLZakhar Bardakov: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:10DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:41DALMichael Bunting: Embellishment2 min
- P2 19:41COLCale Makar: Interference2 min
- P3 9:00DALTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:27COLGavin Brindley: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Duchene – Bunting2:25
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Robertson – Bourque – Johnston12:01
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Steel8:31
xG 0.43–0.50 (46%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Bunting – Hryckowian8:30
xG 0.06–0.24 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – Bichsel12:32
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen16:10
xG 0.47–0.77 (38%)attempts 7–22goals 0–0
- Lundkvist – Harley15:04
xG 0.63–1.00 (39%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Necas11:21
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Nelson – MacKinnon – Necas2:02
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – MacKinnon – Necas2:58
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta11:14
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar6:33
xG 0.90–0.26 (78%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Malinski11:46
xG 0.62–0.27 (70%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Kulak – Malinski3:29
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).