Thu, Mar 19, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Buffalo Sabres 5, San Jose Sharks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 33 | 28 | 516 |
| SJS | 07 | 010 | 06 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:05BUFNoah OstlundGWGAssists: Josh Doan, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 9:41BUFSam CarrickAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 10:48BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Jason Zucker, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P3 0:40BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Peyton Krebs, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 16:54BUFSam CarrickAssists: Logan Stanley, Zach Metsa · Deflected, 0.15 xG5–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:56SJSAlexander Wennberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:09BUFJason Zucker: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:38BUFOwen Power: Holding2 min
- P3 13:40SJSBarclay Goodrow: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Malenstyn – Benson6:58
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn10:07
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Carrick – Malenstyn – Krebs2:54
xG 0.08–0.03 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson3:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanley – Metsa13:31
xG 0.59–0.30 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin13:42
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Samuelsson – Power2:27
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Celebrini – Graf4:15
xG 0.20–0.05 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Celebrini – Graf2:21
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk3:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Regenda – Smith7:20
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Desharnais10:10
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Mukhamadullin2:40
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Leddy – Orlov3:05
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).