Fri, Mar 20, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Florida Panthers 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 08 | 19 | 125 |
| CGY | 010 | 210 | 216 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:44CGYJoel FarabeeAssists: Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 10:10CGYVictor OlofssonGWGAssists: Adam Klapka, Olli Maatta · Slap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 4:17FLAA.J. GreerAssists: Donovan Sebrango, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 16:59CGYMorgan FrostPPAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Zayne Parekh · Backhand, 0.89 xG1–3
- P3 17:30CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Matvei Gridin, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:45FLANolan Foote: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:36FLADmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:22CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:41FLANiko Mikkola: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:20CGYMatt Coronato: Holding2 min
- P3 11:14FLAA.J. Greer: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:14FLAA.J. Greer: Interference5 min
- P3 11:14FLAA.J. Greer: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:04CGYJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:39FLATomas Nosek: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:14
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Kunin – Foote8:37
xG 0.24–0.22 (51%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Reinhardt9:23
xG 0.33–0.47 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Luostarinen7:38
xG 0.01–0.23 (3%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Sebrango11:33
xG 0.69–0.13 (84%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Jones – Mikkola12:15
xG 0.20–0.57 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
- Kulikov – Ekblad12:54
xG 0.19–0.58 (25%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Coronato – Gridin10:51
xG 0.59–0.35 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Strome – Sharangovich – Zary9:27
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee7:56
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Pospisil – Klapka7:03
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Parekh9:25
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Maatta – Brzustewicz11:41
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Whitecloud – Bahl14:08
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).