Sat, Mar 21, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 3, Montréal Canadiens 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 26 | 08 | 18 | 322 |
| MTL | 117 | 27 | 412 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 6:46NYIEmil HeinemanPPAssists: Anders Lee, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 13:19NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 17:49MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Oliver Kapanen · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 19:08MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 0:45NYIMatthew SchaeferPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 3:17MTLKaiden GuhleGWGAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 8:08MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 11:20MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Kaiden Guhle · Snap, 0.13 xG3–6
- P3 14:59MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.15 xG3–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:31NYICasey Cizikas: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:05MTLKaiden Guhle: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:13NYITony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:02MTLNoah Dobson: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:23NYITony DeAngelo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:53MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:28NYIMathew Barzal: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:28MTLKaiden Guhle: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:28NYIMathew Barzal: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:28NYIMathew Barzal: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:28MTLKaiden Guhle: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:59NYIBrayden Schenn: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:59MTLNick Suzuki: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Gatcomb – Ritchie8:27
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal11:52
xG 0.43–0.47 (47%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Palat – Pageau – Holmstrom9:13
xG 0.28–0.72 (28%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Schenn – Duclair – Heineman9:48
xG 0.18–0.78 (19%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Schaefer4:02
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock3:10
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Soucy – Pulock2:08
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEvans – Texier – Bolduc10:00
xG 0.70–0.20 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:38
xG 0.74–0.25 (75%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov10:05
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Veleno10:19
xG 0.31–0.80 (28%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Hutson4:26
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Carrier – Guhle12:22
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Struble – Hutson10:26
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).