Sat, Mar 21, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 313 | 26 | 528 |
| EDM | 111 | 011 | 16 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:37EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Evan Bouchard · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 1:37TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 12:13TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 16:58TBLNikita KucherovSHGWGAssists: J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 7:16EDMJosh SamanskiUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG3–2
- P3 15:32TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 19:28TBLAnthony CirelliENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P2 6:03TBLPontus Holmberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:03EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:29TBLPontus Holmberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:29EDMConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 11:03EDMDarnell Nurse: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 11:03TBLAnthony Cirelli: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:03EDMVasily Podkolzin: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:06EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P2 14:47TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:34TBLYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:50EDMMax Jones: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:09TBLErik Cernak: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Samanski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel6:42
xG 0.88–0.27 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel4:06
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Perry – Bjorkstrand – Paul6:11
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Paul – Goncalves2:23
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser17:55
xG 1.12–0.54 (68%)attempts 25–12goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak14:41
xG 0.45–0.70 (39%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg9:27
xG 0.10–1.25 (7%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestRoslovic – Savoie – Samanski7:49
xG 1.07–0.09 (92%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Dickinson – Kapanen – Podkolzin10:00
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Jones – Jarventie5:44
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid14:42
xG 0.48–1.34 (26%)attempts 14–24goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Emberson10:23
xG 1.39–0.05 (97%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Murphy – Nurse14:23
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard17:21
xG 0.42–1.14 (27%)attempts 14–28goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).