Tue, Mar 24, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Chicago Blackhawks 4, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 312 | 17 | 05 | 424 |
| NYI | 112 | 012 | 223 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49NYIAnders LeeAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Bo Horvat · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 12:46CHINick LardisAssists: Frank Nazar, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 18:06CHIIlya MikheyevAssists: Anton Frondell · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P1 19:31CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Alex Vlasic, Nick Lardis · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 6:02CHIFrank NazarGWGAssists: Nick Lardis · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 8:45NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Scott Mayfield · Snap, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 16:37NYICalum RitchieAssists: Carson Soucy, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:55NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:00NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:54CHITyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:33CHIRyan Donato: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Frondell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Lafferty – Slaggert5:16
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Nazar – Lardis10:32
xG 0.90–0.91 (50%)attempts 17–14goals 3–1
- Burakovsky – Donato – Mikheyev11:01
xG 0.09–0.41 (17%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Greene – Bedard – Frondell10:50
xG 0.27–1.53 (15%)attempts 9–28goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Crevier – Del Mastro4:53
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Del Mastro – Levshunov5:29
xG 0.12–0.32 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Crevier – Kaiser3:19
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Heineman13:18
xG 1.57–0.43 (78%)attempts 24–13goals 1–0
- Palat – Pageau – Holmstrom10:37
xG 0.86–0.28 (76%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb6:30
xG 0.59–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Schenn – Barzal – Ritchie11:50
xG 0.89–0.78 (53%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Schaefer13:06
xG 1.49–0.38 (80%)attempts 28–9goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Schaefer5:58
xG 0.62–0.01 (99%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Pelech – Soucy3:12
xG 0.60–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).