Tue, Mar 24, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 013 | 18 | 06 | 127 |
| WPG | 15 | 29 | 17 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:25WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:08WPGAlex IafalloGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 4:06WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 10:29VGKRasmus AnderssonPPAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Brett Howden · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 18:42WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.79 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:46VGKNic Dowd: Interference2 min
- P2 8:54WPGAlex Iafallo: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min · PPG
- P2 11:49WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:07VGKColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:28VGKNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:01WPGMark Scheifele: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:01VGKBrett Howden: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:45VGKCole Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 12:56WPGElias Salomonsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:42WPGDylan Samberg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel8:02
xG 0.32–0.17 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hertl – Kolesar – Howden5:18
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Barbashev – Eichel – Marner3:50
xG 0.11–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Marner – Dorofeyev6:11
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Lauzon9:23
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson4:54
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Korczak9:48
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestBarron – Rosen – Lambert4:00
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo7:55
xG 0.33–0.21 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Lowry – Vilardi – Perfetti9:28
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Connor – Iafallo – Barron2:41
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk13:04
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Fleury6:14
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg5:24
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).