Wed, Mar 25, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Rangers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 014 | 217 | 112 | 343 |
| TOR | 210 | 14 | 14 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:15TORJake McCabeAssists: Matias Maccelli, Dakota Joshua · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 12:08TORNick RobertsonAssists: Max Domi · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 5:41TORDakota JoshuaAssists: Matias Maccelli, Joseph Woll · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 10:16NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPAssists: J.T. Miller, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 18:01NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 11:57TORJohn TavaresGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 13:04NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Gabe Perreault, Alexis Lafrenière · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:55NYRMatthew Robertson: Holding2 min
- P2 1:22TORDakota Joshua: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:55TORSimon Benoit: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:02TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:20NYRBraden Schneider: Holding2 min
- P3 19:40TORJake McCabe: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Cuylle – Sykora10:30
xG 0.96–0.17 (85%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault13:29
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Brodzinski – Raddysh – Chmelar6:11
xG 0.25–0.06 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheary – Kartye11:00
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox14:51
xG 1.20–0.30 (80%)attempts 23–9goals 0–2
- Borgen – Schneider6:04
xG 0.32–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Schneider3:04
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Lorentz – Quillan6:15
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Cowan13:50
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Joshua – Groulx – Maccelli9:31
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Domi – Robertson – Knies8:17
xG 0.24–1.01 (19%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe11:57
xG 0.40–0.48 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- McCabe – Stecher2:01
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- McCabe – Carlo2:55
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).