Thu, Mar 26, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Dallas Stars 1, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 011 | 110 | 127 |
| NYI | 110 | 06 | 19 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48NYIBo HorvatAssists: Emil Heineman, Matthew Schaefer · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 2:19NYICalum RitchieGWGAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Ryan Pulock · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 17:01DALMatt DucheneAssists: Jamie Benn, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:36DALAdam Erne: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:37NYICasey Cizikas: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:27DALWyatt Johnston: Holding2 min
- P3 3:03DALThomas Harley: Holding2 min
- P3 9:17NYIAdam Boqvist: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBastian – Bäck – Hyry4:59
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Hryckowian2:07
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Robertson – Bourque – Johnston11:54
xG 0.64–0.64 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Erne – Hryckowian4:36
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Bichsel11:55
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen11:52
xG 0.55–0.65 (46%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Heiskanen – Harley2:12
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Pageau – Holmstrom9:27
xG 1.06–0.02 (98%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb6:33
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barzal – Ritchie9:08
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Heineman9:55
xG 0.28–0.80 (26%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Soucy12:37
xG 0.96–0.12 (89%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Pulock – Schaefer13:25
xG 1.43–0.59 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Pelech – Schaefer3:30
xG 0.04–0.30 (13%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).