Thu, Mar 26, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 3, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 09 | 215 | 335 |
| WPG | 17 | 010 | 17 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:55WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:40COLJack DruryAssists: Sam Malinski, Parker Kelly · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 0:13COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 3:55COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Gabriel Landeskog · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 9:39WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Cole Perfetti, Gabriel Vilardi · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P2 3:20COLBrett Kulak: Holding2 min
- P2 6:42WPGGabriel Vilardi: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:07WPGJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:28WPGElias Salomonsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 1:28COLBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:55WPGBrad Lambert: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 7:16COLValeri Nichushkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:47COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P3 13:47COLJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:47WPGMorgan Barron: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:00COLDevon Toews: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:00WPGNeal Pionk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barron won the faceoff against Drury
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Drury – Kiviranta5:57
xG 0.73–0.06 (92%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Kadri – Colton – O'Connor5:31
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Lehkonen – MacKinnon2:29
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Nelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin4:02
xG 0.01–0.12 (8%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson9:08
xG 0.85–0.06 (94%)attempts 13–2goals 0–1
- Toews – Malinski11:34
xG 0.98–0.46 (68%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Makar – Malinski2:58
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Vilardi – Perfetti8:29
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Koepke4:22
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi2:04
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo10:11
xG 0.49–0.80 (38%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Salomonsson8:41
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg3:51
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Fleury6:45
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).