Sat, Mar 28, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Montréal Canadiens 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 314 | 09 | 432 |
| NSH | 03 | 012 | 19 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:34MTLIvan DemidovAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 3:12MTLOliver KapanenGWGAssists: Alex Newhook, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 14:45MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 16:23MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Ivan Demidov, Oliver Kapanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
- P3 16:26NSHZachary L'HeureuxAssists: Ryan Ufko, Matthew Wood · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:44NSHLuke Evangelista: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:59MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:46MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:35MTLKaiden Guhle: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:35NSHNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:24MTLJake Evans: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:05NSHZachary L'Heureux: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:05NSHZachary L'Heureux: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestNewhook – Kapanen – Demidov11:01
xG 0.92–0.25 (79%)attempts 15–9goals 3–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Veleno7:07
xG 0.39–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:10
xG 0.70–0.61 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Anderson – Evans – Bolduc3:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson12:49
xG 0.75–0.10 (88%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Carrier – Guhle12:45
xG 0.69–0.45 (60%)attempts 11–18goals 2–0
- Dobson – Hutson2:43
xG 0.01–0.03 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Jost – Evangelista7:42
xG 0.47–0.09 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – L'Heureux4:02
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jost – Svechkov – Schaefer2:56
xG 0.01–0.01 (41%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Forsberg – Wood5:56
xG 0.01–0.34 (3%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Wilsby3:22
xG 0.15–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Wilsby2:10
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Perbix – Ufko2:58
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).