Mon, Mar 30, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Pittsburgh Penguins 8, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 513 | 38 | 832 |
| NYI | 07 | 38 | 08 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:27NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Adam Boqvist, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:56NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Calum Ritchie, Adam Boqvist · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 6:41PITElmer SoderblomAssists: Connor Dewar, Noel Acciari · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 9:17NYIBrayden SchennAssists: Mathew Barzal, Calum Ritchie · Snap, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 11:01PITRickard RakellSHAssists: Bryan Rust, Parker Wotherspoon · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 13:29PITRyan SheaAssists: Anthony Mantha, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 14:35PITAnthony ManthaGWGAssists: Justin Brazeau, Parker Wotherspoon · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
- P2 17:18PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Justin Brazeau, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 6:06PITAvery HayesAssists: Ben Kindel, Tommy Novak · Snap, 0.29 xG6–3
- P3 7:54PITRickard RakellAssists: Justin Brazeau, Samuel Girard · Deflected, 0.12 xG7–3
- P3 16:16PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.13 xG8–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:45PITSamuel Girard: Holding2 min
- P1 16:45NYIMathew Barzal: Embellishment2 min
- P1 19:03NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:45PITRickard Rakell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:41PITNoel Acciari: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:35PITElmer Soderblom: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:35NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRakell – Mantha – Brazeau10:51
xG 1.03–0.11 (90%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Soderblom9:31
xG 0.85–0.17 (83%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Novak – Hayes – Kindel8:27
xG 0.82–0.20 (81%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Chinakhov11:11
xG 0.68–0.78 (47%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Girard15:54
xG 1.26–0.30 (81%)attempts 11–18goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon14:06
xG 1.39–0.46 (75%)attempts 25–9goals 2–1
- Clifton – Shea14:20
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb10:41
xG 0.44–0.37 (55%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Lee – Horvat – Heineman12:31
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Schenn – Barzal – Ritchie11:50
xG 0.72–1.31 (35%)attempts 14–21goals 2–2
- Palat – Pageau – Holmstrom9:27
xG 0.06–0.66 (8%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Soucy12:27
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
- Soucy – Schaefer2:26
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Pelech – Boqvist2:19
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).