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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 30, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim

Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Anaheim Ducks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.

ANA winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
TOR190103713529
ANA291121803432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:43ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Troy Terry, Olen Zellweger · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:46ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P1 14:18TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:33ANAJohn CarlsonAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Beckett Sennecke · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
  5. P3 6:55TORMatthew KniesPPAssists: William Nylander, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P3 10:14TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Easton Cowan · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
  7. P3 17:00TORMorgan RiellyAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
  8. P3 18:21ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Jacob Trouba, Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
  9. OT 4:55TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Easton Cowan · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (23)
  1. P1 0:03ANARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 0:03TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 1:16TORJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 1:16TORMatthew Knies: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 8:56ANAPavel Mintyukov: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 8:56TOREaston Cowan: Roughing2 min · PPG
  7. P1 8:56TORWilliam Nylander: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  8. P1 13:31ANAJeffrey Viel: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 2:49TORMichael Pezzetta: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 2:49TORMichael Pezzetta: Misconduct10 min
  11. P2 2:49TORMichael Pezzetta: Game misconduct10 min
  12. P2 9:04TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
  13. P2 9:04ANAPavel Mintyukov: Fighting5 min
  14. P2 9:04TORMax Domi: Aggressor10 min
  15. P2 10:30TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
  16. P2 10:30ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
  17. P2 10:30TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
  18. P2 10:30ANARadko Gudas: Misconduct10 min
  19. P2 10:30TORJake McCabe: Misconduct10 min
  20. P2 11:07ANALeo Carlsson: Tripping2 min
  21. P2 14:13ANAChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
  22. P3 6:20ANARyan Poehling: High sticking2 min · PPG
  23. P3 14:46TOREaston Cowan: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
47% to win53% to win
← TOR attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Washe won the faceoff against Pezzetta
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORANA
29Shots on goal32
3.5Expected goals4.3
57Shot attempts76
28Faceoffs won37
4Power plays6
66Penalty minutes32
28Hits15
15Blocked shots10
15Giveaways23
4Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestTavares – Nylander – Cowan9:33

    xG 0.99–0.21 (82%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0

  2. Joshua – Robertson – Quillan2:30

    xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  3. Jarnkrok – Pezzetta – Quillan2:03

    xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0

  4. Domi – Joshua – Robertson5:34

    xG 0.03–0.35 (9%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestRielly – Stecher3:12

    xG 0.26–0.06 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  2. Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:23

    xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0

  3. McCabe – Stecher10:11

    xG 0.68–0.57 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2

Anaheim Ducks

Forward lines

  1. bestKillorn – Granlund – Sennecke9:43

    xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1

  2. Kreider – Terry – Carlsson8:46

    xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0

  3. Viel – Poehling – Sennecke2:02

    xG 0.00–0.17 (1%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  4. Kreider – Viel – Poehling3:22

    xG 0.03–0.32 (9%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestTrouba – LaCombe10:56

    xG 0.77–0.29 (72%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1

  2. Carlson – LaCombe2:02

    xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  3. Carlson – Zellweger2:36

    xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 4.3 xGTOR 3.5 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANATOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #33 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.74 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 6% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +37 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.

ANA winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).