Mon, Mar 30, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 4, San Jose Sharks 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 24 | 19 | 113 | 426 |
| SJS | 311 | 19 | 19 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28STLTheo LindsteinAssists: Jake Neighbours · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 8:30SJSAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 13:25SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Alexander Wennberg · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 16:39STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jake Neighbours · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 19:04SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Nick Leddy, Will Smith · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 10:13SJSAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Will Smith · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P2 19:34STLPhilip BrobergPPAssists: Dylan Holloway, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 12:53STLCam FowlerPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 19:38SJSAdam GaudetteGWGAssists: Mario Ferraro, Vincent Desharnais · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:11STLRobert Thomas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 12:39STLDalibor Dvorsky: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:14SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:52STLPius Suter: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:08STLPhilip Broberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:06SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:08SJSYaroslav Askarov: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ostapchuk won the faceoff against Finley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Thomas – Holloway4:59
xG 0.46–0.19 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours6:41
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Berggren – Dvorsky – Stenberg8:55
xG 0.10–0.01 (92%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Toropchenko – Suter – Finley7:26
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBroberg – Mailloux16:12
xG 0.92–0.44 (68%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Fowler – Parayko3:56
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Parayko – Lindstein13:30
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Celebrini – Chernyshov14:04
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk8:01
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Graf – Misa7:27
xG 0.05–0.08 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Sherwood – Eklund13:54
xG 0.42–0.71 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Dickinson18:08
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin14:30
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Orlov – Desharnais12:31
xG 0.22–1.07 (17%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).