Tue, Mar 31, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 25 | 28 | 424 |
| WSH | 25 | 28 | 25 | 618 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:59WSHTom WilsonAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Rasmus Sandin · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 18:35WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Matt Roy, Connor McMichael · Snap, 0.26 xG0–2
- P2 0:39PHITravis SanheimAssists: Travis Konecny, Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.70 xG1–2
- P2 4:36PHICarl GrundstromAssists: Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P2 6:58WSHJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Ryan Leonard, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 17:37WSHRyan LeonardPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 0:33PHIChristian DvorakAssists: Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 3:47WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Connor McMichael, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.25 xG3–5
- P3 7:52PHIDenver BarkeyAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Noah Cates · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 18:56WSHTom WilsonENAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matt Roy · Snap, 0.22 xG4–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:29PHIPorter Martone: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:07WSHCole Hutson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:47PHITrevor Zegras: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:47WSHConnor McMichael: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:29PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:51WSHCole Hutson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:59PHITrevor Zegras: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:38WSHJustin Sourdif: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:38PHIEmil Andrae: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:13WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00WSHJustin Sourdif: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Konecny – Martone9:55
xG 0.97–0.49 (66%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Grundstrom – Tippett – Zegras4:57
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Couturier – Glendening – Hathaway5:09
xG 0.06–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Cates – Michkov3:14
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim14:20
xG 0.78–0.30 (72%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Seeler – Andrae10:05
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- York – Drysdale12:20
xG 0.67–0.85 (44%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – McMichael7:25
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 2–2
- Duhaime – Kampf – Miroshnichenko4:32
xG 0.01–0.08 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Lapierre7:54
xG 0.14–0.31 (32%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Beauvillier – Sourdif – Leonard7:57
xG 0.08–0.29 (22%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun3:46
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun10:11
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Roy – Sandin2:27
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).