Tue, Mar 31, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Seattle Kraken 0, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 06 | 013 | 08 | 027 |
| EDM | 212 | 09 | 13 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28EDMMax JonesGWGAssists: Jake Walman · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 12:43EDMKasperi KapanenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 17:34EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.54 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:02SEAEeli Tolvanen: Holding2 min
- P2 5:43EDMMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P2 17:55EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min
- P3 12:24EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers6:02
xG 0.46–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Schwartz – McCann – Fisker Molgaard3:47
xG 0.02–0.04 (27%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Tolvanen – Meyers8:16
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Eberle – Beniers – Catton5:19
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oleksiak – Lindgren12:38
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Montour – Evans16:53
xG 0.59–0.81 (42%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:06
xG 0.48–0.83 (37%)attempts 18–15goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMcDavid – Podkolzin – Savoie12:25
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Henrique – Dickinson – Kapanen9:51
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Lazar – Jones – Samanski8:27
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Roslovic11:17
xG 0.08–0.25 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard16:02
xG 0.85–0.40 (68%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Murphy – Nurse17:12
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Walman – Emberson15:02
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).