Thu, Apr 2, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 02 | 14 | 04 | 110 |
| CAR | 39 | 16 | 16 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27CARLogan StankovenAssists: K'Andre Miller, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:52CARLogan StankovenGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Jackson Blake · Snap, 0.28 xG0–2
- P1 12:50CARAlexander NikishinSHAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 11:24CBJDenton MateychukAssists: Boone Jenner, Isac Lundeström · Snap, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 11:37CARJordan MartinookAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.01 xG1–4
- P3 6:44CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:31CARK'Andre Miller: Holding2 min
- P2 3:14CBJDenton Mateychuk: Interference2 min
- P3 4:34CARShayne Gostisbehere: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:35CBJIvan Provorov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:34CARShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:22CBJDanton Heinen: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:22CARK'Andre Miller: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Wood – Lundeström5:09
xG 0.31–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Marchenko – Sillinger – Fantilli5:17
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Monahan – Heinen – Johnson4:40
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Sillinger3:49
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro11:28
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Mateychuk8:58
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Fabbro3:09
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake11:45
xG 1.03–0.52 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:04
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers9:35
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson8:51
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller16:25
xG 1.36–0.38 (78%)attempts 23–13goals 2–0
- Slavin – Chatfield13:58
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Walker – Nikishin2:02
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).