Thu, Apr 2, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 0, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 04 | 07 | 011 | 022 |
| DAL | 211 | 16 | 04 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:43DALMatt DuchenePPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:12DALArttu HyryAssists: Jamie Benn, Adam Erne · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 2:15DALAdam ErneAssists: Lian Bichsel, Arttu Hyry · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:41DALMiro Heiskanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:36WPGHaydn Fleury: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:56DALJason Robertson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:24DALColin Blackwell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:24DALColin Blackwell: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:24WPGNeal Pionk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:24WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:24DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:24DALColin Blackwell: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:24WPGNeal Pionk: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Hryckowian
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestBarron – Rosen – Ford3:00
xG 0.19–0.00 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lowry – Perfetti – Lambert2:48
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Rosen2:17
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lowry – Vilardi – Perfetti7:39
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Samberg2:35
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg4:15
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Fleury – Pionk2:59
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBäck – Bourque – Hryckowian9:16
xG 0.75–0.05 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Robertson – Johnston11:23
xG 0.66–0.41 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Robertson – Bourque – Johnston2:31
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Blackwell6:02
xG 0.00–0.21 (2%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Bichsel5:18
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen11:01
xG 0.61–0.28 (69%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Lundkvist – Harley9:18
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).