Sat, Apr 4, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 2, Dallas Stars 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 08 | 27 | 222 |
| DAL | 08 | 04 | 05 | 017 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 10:39COLMartin NecasGWGAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 19:02COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Martin Necas, Josh Manson · Snap, 0.76 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:17DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:57COLBrett Kulak: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:55COLJack Drury: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:55DALMavrik Bourque: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:12COLBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas12:17
xG 0.71–0.64 (53%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Kadri – Kelly – Kiviranta6:29
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin10:45
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Colton – Drury – O'Connor4:42
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Malinski16:28
xG 0.52–0.45 (53%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Manson – Malinski2:13
xG 0.12–0.12 (52%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Manson – Kulak12:45
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRantanen – Robertson – Johnston12:08
xG 0.79–0.40 (67%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Blackwell6:32
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bäck – Bourque – Hryckowian8:40
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Erne – Bäck – Hyry2:12
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley5:02
xG 0.35–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Bichsel2:33
xG 0.19–0.03 (87%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley3:17
xG 0.15–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).