Sat, Apr 4, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 111 | 03 | 122 |
| TBL | 08 | 05 | 310 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:47BOSCasey MittelstadtAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P3 2:13TBLCharle-Edouard D'AstousAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 14:29TBLDarren RaddyshGWGAssists: J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 18:27TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Jake Guentzel, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.73 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:47TBLDarren Raddysh: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:47TBLPontus Holmberg: Holding2 min
- P2 8:43TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 12:16BOSFraser Minten: Interference2 min
- P3 4:31TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt10:42
xG 0.90–0.38 (71%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
- Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov – Minten11:36
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Eyssimont – Geekie9:31
xG 0.20–0.36 (35%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic8:41
xG 0.16–0.42 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Aspirot14:44
xG 0.82–0.68 (55%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Lindholm – Harris11:29
xG 0.22–0.29 (42%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Peeke15:13
xG 0.29–0.60 (32%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Paul – Chaffee2:45
xG 0.22–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – Chaffee3:40
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Point – Goncalves5:27
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg10:16
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak11:12
xG 0.46–0.18 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg16:01
xG 0.81–0.68 (54%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Raddysh – Moser16:02
xG 0.39–0.98 (29%)attempts 11–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).