Sat, Apr 4, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Utah Mammoth 7, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 28 | 29 | 38 | 725 |
| VAN | 111 | 17 | 25 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28VANLinus KarlssonAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Liam Ohgren · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:34UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: Logan Cooley · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 18:30UTAClayton KellerAssists: Lawson Crouse, Nick DeSimone · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 2:05VANLinus KarlssonAssists: Victor Mancini, Teddy Blueger · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 7:04UTAClayton KellerPPAssists: Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 11:55UTADylan GuentherAssists: John Marino, Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 0:20VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Filip Hronek · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 1:32UTALawson CrouseGWGAssists: Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 4:40VANMarco RossiPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–4
- P3 11:45UTALiam O'BrienAssists: Brandon Tanev, Nate Schmidt · Backhand, 0.17 xG6–4
- P3 19:07UTAClayton KellerENAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.52 xG7–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:34VANPierre-Olivier Joseph: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:45VANLinus Karlsson: Embellishment2 min
- P1 19:45UTAMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P2 5:30VANFilip Hronek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:22UTAIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P2 15:38VANMax Sasson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:38UTASean Durzi: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:38VANMax Sasson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:38UTASean Durzi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:45UTAIan Cole: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:49UTAClayton Keller: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 14:59VANTeddy Blueger: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:52UTAJJ Peterka: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestYamamoto – Guenther – Cooley9:13
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Kerfoot – Carcone – Peterka9:22
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller8:39
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev8:55
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – DeSimone10:49
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 3–1
- Sergachev – Durzi14:37
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Marino13:48
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Karlsson – Sasson9:37
xG 0.20–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrusk – Pettersson4:37
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boeser – Rossi – Ohgren5:48
xG 0.24–0.18 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Räty – Ohgren – Mueller3:45
xG 0.19–0.20 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Joseph – Mancini9:27
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Hronek – Buium14:31
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Pettersson – Willander13:30
xG 0.19–0.27 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).