Sat, Apr 4, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 211 | 211 | 533 |
| EDM | 010 | 18 | 014 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:43VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:44VGKColton SissonsGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Jeremy Lauzon · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 8:05VGKJeremy LauzonAssists: Jack Eichel, Brett Howden · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 19:26EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Jack Roslovic, Matt Savoie · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 4:04VGKMark StoneAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 16:13VGKRasmus AnderssonPPAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Noah Hanifin · Slap, 0.07 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:09EDMConnor Murphy: Holding2 min
- P1 8:09VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:06VGKNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:51VGKKaedan Korczak: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:25EDMMax Jones: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEichel – Howden – Dorofeyev6:02
xG 0.55–0.07 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Marner – Howden – Dorofeyev3:40
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Hertl – Sissons7:23
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Marner6:58
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Korczak8:24
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:53
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson16:18
xG 0.49–0.75 (39%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Lazar – Jones8:18
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen – Podkolzin2:17
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Kapanen – Podkolzin6:09
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- McDavid – Roslovic – Savoie6:06
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard12:04
xG 0.84–0.14 (86%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Murphy – Walman2:07
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Walman – Emberson8:12
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).