Sun, Apr 5, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 011 | 113 | 231 |
| PIT | 38 | 110 | 15 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:00PITElmer SoderblomUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:15FLACole SchwindtAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 16:50PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 19:12PITRickard RakellPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 18:08PITRickard RakellAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 3:48PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Egor Chinakhov · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 14:15FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:52FLASam Bennett: Holding2 min
- P1 8:44FLADonovan Sebrango: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:29PITBryan Rust: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:20FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:20FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:20PITParker Wotherspoon: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:00FLAMackie Samoskevich: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:00PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:38FLAEetu Luostarinen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:11PITSamuel Girard: Holding2 min
- P3 0:19PITBryan Rust: Interference2 min
- P3 6:24PITConnor Clifton: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:48FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:48PITParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:48FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:17FLAA.J. Greer: Holding2 min
- P3 12:45PITConnor Clifton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:05PITBryan Rust: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Luostarinen won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Luostarinen – Samoskevich2:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Greer – Luostarinen – Samoskevich8:03
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Greer2:26
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nosek – Gregor – Boqvist3:24
xG 0.06–0.04 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Sebrango9:11
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Jones – Bjornfot7:40
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–3
- Kulikov – Forsling12:57
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Chinakhov7:06
xG 0.46–0.09 (83%)attempts 4–5goals 2–0
- Malkin – Rakell – Novak5:25
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Soderblom6:03
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel3:15
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Girard9:41
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon8:23
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wotherspoon – Girard2:38
xG 0.04–0.19 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).